2025 Predictions Review

381 days ago, I posted my predictions for the year. Now that the dust of 2025 has settled, I’ll be reviewing my work and closing off this experiment.

Prediction 1: Silicon Crisis

NVIDIA stock price increases by 20% ($120) due to unprecedented demand of Silicon Chips

I don’t think I could’ve asked for a better prediction. NVIDIA stock has risen 40% since my prediction, and there is currently a massive ‘ram shortage’ that is effecting global trade.

Prediction 2: Video Generation Golden Era

A popular movie (>$100 budget) comes out with AI generated scenes / actors as a selling point

This prediction was more of a miss than I would like. There was certainly some interesting developments with the release of Sora 2, Veo 3, and Runway Gen-4.5, but it was not as impactful as I originally thought. Alternatively, I was surprisingly accurate with my prediction that a model analogous to DeepSeek would be developed, which would of course be the famous Wan2.2 by Alibaba.

Prediction 3: StarLink Competitor

A company launches more than 50 satellites for communication purposes

This one was also spot on. Amazon Leo launched 180 production satellites, with a full rollout expected this year.

Prediction 4: Strong Australia / US Alliance

90% chance that the United States does not drop AUSFTA

I was also right about this prediction, but only partially. While the US didn’t drop AUSFTA, they did put a 10% tariff (the minimum amount) on Australian exports. Despite this, I feel like my prediction is more than valid as trade actually managed to increase by 20% year-on-year despite the additional taxes.

Wild Cards

Netflix incorporates AI upscaling features

Netflix infamously upscaled older classics such as the 1980s sitcom A Different World.

Quantum computers are ‘miniaturized’ (still very expensive)

Somewhat true. There were multiple advancements made in 2025, but not as extensive as I hoped.

Bitcoin reaches at least 120k

Bitcoin reached an ATH of 125k (then dropped quickly back).

OpenAI progression slows / encounters legal troubles

This is only somewhat true. OpenAI did have some recent controversy with implementing ads into ChatGPT (as well as some infamous lawsuits), but they also released GPT-5/Sora 2 and are generally doing better than the prediction was hoping for.

Hard British recession

This one was a hard miss. Briton was the 3rd fastest growing in terms of GPD in the G7, and the unemployment rate has remained steady (although increasing)

Artemis II succeeds primary mission objectives, but is delayed

Artemis II was delayed, although for a lot longer than I predicted.

Germany leaves the EU

This one was also a miss, fortunately.

Conclusion

I think I did reasonably well on my predictions all things considered. I think I generally played it safe but was otherwise almost spot on for most of them. I rate myself 8/10 for my main predictions, and 5/10 for my wildcards.